Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 2.456808 2.616338 2.786038 2.980870 3.199480 3.438511 3.721447
2025-05-25 2.207332 2.421274 2.660719 2.951538 3.299385 3.707703 4.232043
2025-06-01 2.046023 2.287940 2.567954 2.921444 3.364029 3.911933 4.662434
2025-06-08 1.940158 2.202940 2.515438 2.922727 3.452923 4.140882 5.141283
2025-06-15 1.869275 2.150916 2.493922 2.954034 3.575024 4.417972 5.719492
2025-06-22 1.775658 2.062773 2.418519 2.905945 3.581945 4.532233 6.072221
2025-06-29 1.692140 1.981422 2.345067 2.852383 3.572757 4.617356 6.387066
2025-07-06 1.612688 1.900547 2.266675 2.785095 3.535891 4.653834 6.623261
2025-07-13 1.582181 1.880785 2.266672 2.824324 3.654482 4.938296 7.334560
2025-07-20 1.558332 1.867938 2.274271 2.873386 3.790294 5.264821 8.194159
2025-07-27 1.537389 1.857456 2.283760 2.924674 3.932740 5.619575 9.200553
2025-08-03 1.494992 1.815912 2.247662 2.905520 3.960225 5.776106 9.826953
2025-08-10 1.454185 1.775635 2.212394 2.886820 3.989169 5.943585 10.540555
2025-08-17 1.413210 1.733559 2.172630 2.858716 3.999794 6.078147 11.219660
2025-08-24 1.374986 1.693797 2.134274 2.830171 4.006618 6.205340 11.923565
2025-08-31 1.347974 1.668627 2.115786 2.831388 4.064774 6.442842 13.029030
2025-09-07 1.330683 1.656384 2.115435 2.861079 4.175728 6.807132 14.697833
2025-09-14 1.293926 1.615165 2.070384 2.815469 4.144701 6.858579 15.362701
2025-09-21 1.257755 1.573744 2.023576 2.764637 4.100102 6.874034 15.915065
2025-09-28 1.219932 1.528964 1.970311 2.700733 4.026501 6.814524 16.168249
2025-10-05 1.210169 1.524378 1.977513 2.737995 4.149163 7.234005 18.612521
2025-10-12 1.203140 1.523414 1.989988 2.784573 4.294119 7.737049 21.937272
2025-10-19 1.196795 1.523148 2.003360 2.833235 4.447994 8.298380 26.338398